The global rice market is currently in turmoil, facing a confluence of challenges from climate change, El Nino, and restrictive export policies—especially notable are India’s limitations on non-basmati rice exports. This combination has propelled global rice prices to a 15-year peak. Consequently, individuals in nations like Thailand and Vietnam are stockpiling rice, apprehensive of further price surges. Vietnam’s agriculture is grappling with the impacts of climate change, leading some farmers to transition from rice to alternative crops such as mangoes, indicating a potential long-term decline in rice production. Myanmar has recently joined the ranks of countries curbing rice exports, and there are expectations that India, a key player in the global rice market, will tighten its export restrictions even more next year. These developments paint a bleak picture for rice availability in 2024. The situation is further compounded by China reducing water flow in the Mekong River due to decreased rainfall from El Nino, affecting regions that produce rice.

On a more positive note, some countries are better positioned to weather this crisis. Japan is decreasing its rice consumption, and both China and Indonesia have established rice reserves in response to shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic. India has also reduced the minimum price for basmati rice exports with the goal of enhancing its global market share. However, these measures may not be sufficient to alleviate growing concerns among Asian governments and experts, given the deepening economic challenges coupled with climate-related issues. The path to stabilizing the global rice trade may hinge on the relaxation of export restrictions, particularly in India.